Overview:

Counterpoint Research expects the ongoing global IC shortage to begin easing from late 2021, especially in DRAM/NAND. However, logic ICs in mainstream/matured nodes in the foundry industry remain in a tight position and will reach a demand-supply balance only around mid-2023.  

• Our bottom-up research indicates 40nm and 28nm are the focus nodes of higher wafer demand growth and will exceed planned supplies in two years.

• The industry has three major catalysts of stronger wafer demand in matured nodes: (1) Smartphone dollar content growth in chipsets requiring larger die sizes (AMOLED DDIC, high-end CIS) despite stable units of end devices. (2) Recovery cycle of automotive/industry demand after COVID-19 with accelerating unit growth of MCUs, sensors and PMICs. (3) Technology migrations in 5G/IoT, networking and servers, such as WiFi 6E and PCIe5.0, from 2022.

• On the supply side, most of the new lines from major foundries (TSMC in China, UMC in 12A Taiwan, GF in SG and SMIC in SZ/BJ) will gradually ramp up only before 2023, implying some nodes still face shortage risks in the near term. Geopolitical factors may also affect the supply.

Table of Contents:

• Executive summary
• Overview on demand and supply in major foundry nodes, 2021-2024
• Why 28/22nm leads the highest demand growth in 2-3 years?
• Industry capacity growth remains under control
• Conclusion: A structural demand growth pushes supply tightness

Number of Pages: 8
Date Published: August 2021